Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

Rise in investor risk aversion amid a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. Oil prices surge. Brent crude futures close near US$75 per barrel. Global equities declined. US treasuries reverse

Analysts said OPEC might not see any urgency to shift policy, as the surge in prices was driven by a rising risk premium rather than changing market fundamentals.

Entering the meeting, markets are pricing two interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, in line with the central bank's median dot plot projection from March. But since then, there have been significant changes to tariff policy, which will put any updates to the Fed's outlook in particular focus.