In the Atlantic Basin, which includes storms that form in the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America (formerly known as Gulf of Mexico), hurricane season lasts from June 1 until Nov. 30. Historically, 97% of all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will form between those two dates.

It’s a good time to check the forecast and stuff a crate with flashlights, batteries and snack foods with a long shelf life.

But a new hurricane season has arrived, and across the board, experts expect it to be above normal. A couple of key ingredients are driving the outlooks — namely warm sea-surface temperatures in areas where hurricanes form, and weather conditions that likely won’t be strong enough to tamp down storms.