Tariffs on Indian exports to the United States will surge to 50 percent by late August, as part of an effort by President Trump to pressure Russia into resolving its war in Ukraine.

If secondary sanctions lead to a 10 percent drop in Russia’s oil exports, that could increase the price of Brent crude oil by $6 from its current level of about $71 per barrel, while a 20 percent drop could cause prices to spike by $11, Brooks and Harris wrote.