Inflation, tariffs
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Trump Announces Indonesia Trade Deal With 19% Tariff
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A number of factors, including a lack of significant gains in auto prices, are masking the extent of the shift.
Inflation is moving higher and the impact of tariffs are only beginning to show up in government data, likely keeping interest rates on hold.
While Tuesday's focus was on the tariff-related inflation hit to Treasuries, it's been a rough week for government bonds everywhere - especially in Japan as long-term yields there hit new highs this week ahead of the July 20 upper house election and related fiscal policy worries.
President Donald Trump may ultimately get his wish for lower interest rates, but it isn’t likely to be the result of his intensifying criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Current tariff collections equate to 0.1% monthly inflation, aligning with recent CPI data. See why I’m skeptical that tariffs will lead to widespread inflation.
Consumer prices rose faster than in May, a potential sign that companies are starting to pass tariff costs on to consumers.
A whiff of tariff inflation showed up in economic data this week, providing the first clues of how tariff policy might impact prices and the economy.
The Indian rupee fell on Wednesday as the latest U.S. inflation report showed that tariffs were beginning to feed into prices, weakening bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which lifted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.